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Fossil fuels: building the model - A single aspect

The original problem statement said this: "Scientists know that our supply of fossil fuels is limited, and that burning fossil fuels is a factor is changing the Earth's climate. But many people do not believe that dangerous. Nor do we have a solution that satisfies enough people to make it politically feasible." And stated the problem like this:

The global problem: how can we define and describe the fossil fuel situation so that people can understand it?

So far I've come up with a very general systems model that is shown via two diagrams. The Public Attitudes diagram shows that what people think about the situation influences and is influenced by media coverage and that it also influences global economics and politics. Embedded in that diagram is a second diagram showing the events involved in the Global Use of Fossil Fuels.

In the previous section I located various facts about the global production and use of fossil fuels. I won't repeat those here.

Because the situation is so large and complicated, and because my task is to try to communicate the need to move quickly to solve the problems related to the use of fossil fuels, I am thinking about choosing one aspect of the situation and explaining it in depth.

Since food production and distribution depends greatly on the use of fossil fuels, and because food is a part of everyone's daily lives, I am thinking about using this as the focus of my explanation.

I also notice that media coverage is part of a positive feedback loop. This means that if I can promote some initial media coverage and public interest, the process should then grow on its own.

Gathering Facts

Once again I need to search for data. In this case my topics are:

• the role of fossil fuel in the production and distribution of food,
• the impact of rising fuel costs,
• the impact of environmental changes,
• the cost and feasibility of using other forms of energy in food production and distribution.

In 1890 approximately 90% of the American labor force was dedicated to agriculture. If this was still true today, you would be a farmer, and most of the people you know would be farmers, too. But today, only about 2% of the U.S. population works on farms.

In 1890 everyone was a farmer because access to food was limited. What has happened over the last 100 years to change that?

• Transportation - trucks and planes can move food quickly from where it is produced to where it is eaten.
• Preservation - refrigeration in homes, and in transportation, keeps food from spoiling.
• Processing - in 1890 most food was eaten fresh ... or dried or canned for the winter ... today much of our food is processed in ways that give it a much longer life. Chemical, heat and vacuum processing methods play a large role in this preservation.
• Industrialization of farms means that machinery, computers and chemicals allow many fewer people to produce more and more food on the same amount of land.

Note that I am not trying to argue that we have invented a perfect, or even healthy, way of life. However, my research is telling me that certain changes in our culture over the last few decades make our current way of life possible. Without these changes, many more of us would have to work on farms.

Some Problems

In fact, this system seems somewhat fragile. A breakdown in any of the support systems that keep farming going might easily result in food shortages in the U.S.

• If the electricity were to go out for more than a few days in any given area, large amounts of food would spoil.
• Loss of the satellite data and computer networks that farmers use could dramatically reduce food production.
• If oil prices rise, then transportation costs rise, too ... as does the cost of fuel for farm machinery. This means that the cost of food is directly tied to the cost of oil.

[See, for example:

Food security…

Food Supply, Food Shortages…

Global food supply is a growing problem…

2007–2008 world food price crisis…

Climate change and world food supply…

Food and Agriculture Stats.org …]

An Approach

I have read through many reports and gathered much more data than I have reported here. My assessment is that, unless something changes in the way we produce and distribute our food, a rise in the cost of oil is bound to generate an equivalent rise in the cost of food.

Furthermore, any moderate to long term interruption in the supply of fossil fuels could easily result in serious food shortages.

I think that the relationship between oil prices and the cost of food might be useful to my client. As my diagram shows, I expect that rising food prices would come to the attention of the public. Certainly, people would notice that things cost more at the stores and restaurants. And when this happens, I should expect the media to get involved.

We have had some experience with this kind of situation in the past when rising oil prices pushed up the cost of gasoline. Those events became headline stories in the news media. Food prices have never reached that level of interest ... but in the future they might.

So I am begining to think that I might recommend that my clients prepare a public information campaign that focuses on the relationship between the declining availability of fossil fuel and the rising cost of food.

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