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Fossil fuels: testing the model -a single aspect

The original situation was described like this:

The global problem: how can we define and describe the fossil fuel situation so that people can understand it?

In order to deal with this situation in a short period of time I have reduced the scope of the assignment to focus on the role of fossil fuel in food production and distribution. My research suggests a model that shows how the dwindling supply of oil in the ground leads to rising transportation costs that then generate a rise in the cost of food. I believe that the rising food costs might come to the attention of the media.

Testing

I begin my testing by asking some experts to review my model. They provide some interesting feedback.

One of the experts notes that my model only shows the link that goes from rising fuel prices to rising food prices. She suggests that the box named "Reported Effects" will be getting input from other sources. I add a relational arrow to show that.

Another expert points out that one reason that food prices have not previously been widely reported in the media is that gasoline prices and the cost of home heating have gotten most of the publicity. I expand the "Reported Effects" box to reflect this. And I add an emphasis on "Food" to show that this is my main focus.

Finally, since I am planning to make a recommendation to my clients, I add a comment on the arrow from "Reported Effects" to "Media Coverage." This comment will be the main point of my report.

The Report

My clients have asked me to suggest actions that they might take to promote a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. I have reviewed quite a lot of data and come to the conclusion that a public information campaign that focuses on the rising cost of food might be the best approach. My argument goes like this:

1. As shortages in oil production develop ... as surely they will ... the cost of transportation and power will rise.
2. These costs will be directly reflected in a rising cost of food ... as well as in other costs such as gasoline and home heating.
3. Gasoline and home heating costs are already widely covered by the media, but food costs are not.
4. A well-prepared public information campaign, focused on the relationship between our use of oil and the cost of food, and timed to coincide with the next round of price increases, has a good chance of increasing public awareness on the issue and helping people to understand that we need to reduce our dependence on oil.

They accept my report, and this completes my contract. I am not an expert in public information campaigns, and I assume that they will hire someone else should they decide to proceed with one. And, I expect that they will alter my ideas in various ways to better fit with their current plans and expectations.

If they need clarification from me as to the meaning of my report, then I will be available for that. If they want me to expand my analysis, then we will need an additional contract.

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