prediction
A prediction loop attempts to provide more accurate control based on the historical performance of the system. In the past this was a very difficult task, but computer modeling now makes it possible.
Data from various parts of the system flows into a computer database. This data provides a historical description of certain selected aspects of the system's behavior. Computer programs analyze the data and produce estimates of the system's future behavior.
These kinds of processes are usually called "sub-systems." They are not essential to the system's operation. Rather they are modules that can be added to the system to improve performance.
Sales Prediction
A producer ships items to a retail store. The store sells the products to customers and reorders whenever the supply of product on the shelves gets too low.
Each sale is recorded and stored in a database. A computer program analyzes the data and compares the volume of sales with other data such as time of year, economic factors and so on. Based on the analysis, the re-order unit may increase or decrease orders for the product.
Where the Data Comes From
The process that gathers data for analysis is often a significant system itself. Many store offer "store cards" to their customers. Customers show the cards at the register and receive a discount on certain items. In order to acquire the card, a customer must fill out a form that provides the store with data such as the customer's age and location. Since all of the customer's purchases are recorded, the computer can also track the customer's preferences and make an estimate as to the customer's income level.
By analyzing all of the data from store card sales over a period of time, along with non-card sales and inventory data, the computer can build a model of sales behavior. This may indicate times during the year when sales will rise (e.g., during a holiday season) or fall off. Or it may show trends in customer likes and dislikes.
Some of the analysis may feed back directly into the inventory re-order system. Some analysis might be turned into reports that go to company executives to assist them in making their business decisions.
Remember This
Computer analysis subsystems can sometimes be used to predict real time system behavior.
Home - Diagramming Topics - Next: Levels